Just how effective is making war on perceived social problems? I think effectiveness in this case should be defined by the cost of the “war” (both the financial and the social cost) versus the prevalence of the problem. How much does it cost to gain what percentage of perceived improvement? Is the cost worth it? Well, let’s just take a look at that.
Prohibition
The temperance movement of the 19th Century culminated in the passing of the Volstead Act in 1919, prohibiting the sale or drinking of alcoholic beverages in every state of the union. Sadly, the earnest ladies (and some gents) of the Temperance Union did not understand economics terribly well—specifically, the law of supply and demand. By making alcohol difficult to obtain, they increased the amount people were willing to pay for it, and also increased the actual demand—when you tell people they can’t have something, they immediately want it more than ever before. This meant that it was highly lucrative for people to break the law by providing the commodity for which everyone thirsted. According to an academic paper by Conor Doyle published in the Student Economic Review in 2005, “…members of one New York gang reported themselves as earning a basic wage of $200 per week (Sifakis 1987: 266). This represented an increase of roughly 700% over the standard manufacturing wage.” Pretty tempting stuff for a working man.
The government responded by creating an elite corps of law enforcement agents: the “Untouchables,” headed by Elliot Ness. This militarized corps waged war on the gangsters, who waged war on them, the police, other gangsters, and anybody who blundered into the cross-fire.
The Association Against the Prohibition Amendment (AAPA) claimed that Prohibition had totaled more than $300 million in enforcement expenses and $11 billion in lost tax revenues by 1931. (That’s about $153 billion in today’s dollars. Wait until we get to the War on Drugs!) Enforcing the law increased police costs, jammed federal and state courts, and dramatically expanded the prison population. During the 1920s, federal criminal cases more than quadrupled, to more than 85,000 per year; most involved Volstead Act violations. By 1930, two-thirds of those found guilty received only fines, but federal prisons housed twice the number of inmates for which they were designed, and the overflow was farmed out to state and local jails. The AAPA maintained that taxpayers bore prohibition's considerable direct costs, and outlawing the liquor trade also eliminated many legitimate jobs and did away with liquor taxes, an important source of government revenue. (More on this topic here.)
In 1933, the “Noble Experiment” was repealed. By that time, there were more than 10,000 speakeasies in Chicago alone. Organized crime, which previous to the Volstead Act had limited its activities to a little gambling and theft, came into its own, and began to take over prostitution, drugs, and anything else illegal and profitable. While numbers are hard to come by, alcohol consumption apparently skyrocketed. In Cook County, IL, deaths from alcohol rose dramatically, starting in 1920 (more here). According to the same Conor Doyle referenced above, during Prohibition there were 703 gang deaths in Chicago alone. I don’t know how many others died elsewhere in the country due to gang violence, and there were certainly a lot of folks who died from imbibing contaminated “bathtub gin.”
So we expended a great deal of blood and treasure on Prohibition, and it failed utterly. But we learned our lesson, didn’t we?
The War on Poverty
Well, maybe we didn’t. Under President Lyndon B. Johnson, another well-intentioned war was launched in 1964 to eradicate poverty in the United States. Congress passed the Economic Opportunity Act, forming the Office of Economic Opportunity to administer federal funds allocated to relieve poverty. Donald Rumsfeld (yes, he of the so-successful War on Iraq) was an early director of the OEO.
A number of excellent programs were born under this effort, including Head Start, Volunteers in Service to America, and Job Corps, all of which are operating today. But did the War on Poverty, begun when unemployment was at 19%, lower the percentage of poor people in the U.S.?
As we can see from the graph above (courtesy of the Census, http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p60-231.pdf) the poverty rate in 1964 dipped sharply, then continued to bounce back and forth between 12 and 15 percent until our present day. So we did make something of an impact, though poverty is far from eliminated.
But there were—as usual in these matters—unintended consequences. One of these was a backlash against social services to the poor, resulting in a fairly constant reduction in welfare funding and services since about 1975 (see graph below).
Welfare Benefits Payments
(Source: http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/indicators08/apa.shtml#ftanf2)
This decline in welfare has continued despite the fact that the OEO was dismantled in 1973 under President Nixon. So we have pretty much the same percentage of people living in poverty, but they are receiving fewer benefits and services every year. This is less of a war on poverty than it is a war on poor people.
How much did the War on Poverty cost to implement? This is difficult to determine. Right-wing bloggers maintain that it is still going on so long as we continue to fund programs aimed at relieving poverty. I think it is fair to measure expenditures during the time the OEO was in operation, 1964 to 1973. Unfortunately, this information isn’t easy to come by. We know it’s billions, but at present, I can’t find a precise figure.
I guess it all comes down to a personal judgment, then, and while I think many of the programs spawned by the War on Poverty (such as Head Start) are worthy and have value to society as a whole, I don’t think we really made much headway, overall. We still have a lot of people living in poverty, and far too many children who are growing up with little or no access to good food, education, and adequate medical care.
The War on Drugs
Okay, we really didn’t learn anything from Prohibition. As George Santayana said, “Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it,” and boy, are we repeating it.
A quick Google search on “war on drugs” yielded among many treasures a website that offers a page entitled “The War on Drugs: Your Guide to Making Money in the Multi-billion Dollar Marijuana Industry.” As with Prohibition, the more difficult it becomes to obtain drugs, the more money there is to be made by people willing to break the law. And it is money that is not taxed.
President Nixon (he of the so-successful War on Vietnam) launched the War on Drugs in 1970 with the Comprehensive Drug Abuse Prevention and Control Act of 1970. This was more or less a continuation of drug-prevention and containment policies the country had pursued for most of the 20th century, and shared its puritanical roots with Prohibition. (“If it feels good, don’t do it.”) But the War on Drugs attacked the issue aggressively, pouring money into drug enforcement agencies and personnel. Before long, the incarceration rate in the United States soared to unprecedented levels.
We expanded the effort in an attempt to nip the problem in the bud at its sources, such as Colombia, Mexico, and Afghanistan, where we funded militaries for the purpose of defeating and jailing (or killing, why not?) the producers. Along the way, we also got involved in funding drug production and actually introducing new drugs into the U.S. market, such as crack cocaine. (For more fun reading about this, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_drug_trafficking.)
Has the War on Drugs been effective in reducing drug use in the U.S.? Please take a few minutes to absorb the data in the table below.
(Sadly, the table proved impossible to upload completely. I will email it to anyone who really wants to see it if you contact me through Comments. In essence, there wasn't a whole lot of change from from 1979 to 2001.)
Hmmm, looks like a couple of percentage points gained here, a couple lost there. Not evidence of stunning progress, at least up to 2001. Maybe it’s gotten better in recent years?
According to a study done in 2008 by Louisa Degenhardt (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia) and colleagues, based on the World Health Organization’s Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), among the 17 developed nations surveyed, the United States had the most punitive drug policies—and the highest percentage of drug use. (For more details, see http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080630201007.htm)
Oh. Then how much did it cost to raise illicit drug consumption to such heights in America? According to the Drug Policy Alliance, in 2001 we were spending $40 billion a year. According to DrugSense (which is a non-profit organization dedicated to drug policy reform), we have spent more than $41 billion this year, and will continue spending at a rate of $600 a second. (The site says the figures are based on information from the Office of National Drug Control Policy).
This is even better than Prohibition. Criminals, subsidized by taxpayer money, are prospering. More taxpayers than ever are in prison on drug offenses (cost per prisoner per year was about $22,000 in 2006 according to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics; it must be higher now, and that doesn’t include the court costs). Drug use in the U.S. is higher than in most developed countries. Despite all the money being spent on drugs by users and providers, not a penny is taxable. Brilliant. Simply brilliant.
Ain’t Gonna Study War No More, No More
Maybe we should stop declaring war. It would be super if we could stop declaring all kinds of war, but for right now, maybe we could institute a moriatorium on declaring war on social ills, because we don’t seem to be very good at it. In fact, declaring war on a social problem seems to make it worse in a majority of cases. Let’s try pacifism—it worked for Gandhi.
As a coda, I would like to point out that it was Republican Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964 who said, “You can’t legislate morality.” (He was talking about the Civil Rights Act, but that doesn’t mean he was wrong on that particular point.) People will continue to behave in private as they please. I may not like what they do, but as long as it harms no one (or no one but themselves), and doesn’t harm other animals or the environment, I don’t actually care. It’s none of my business, and it’s none of your business, either.


